What the US election means for the Australian economy

Access the research report to learn more about the key points outlined below:

• The results of the US election have prompted us to adopt our ‘limited Trump’ scenario as our baseline view for now. Broadly speaking, the outlook for 2025 is little changed. Global growth will be stronger in 2026 and 2027 due to looser fiscal policy and stronger growth in the US, before the impact of tariffs dampen growth considerably in 2028 and 2029.

• This profile masks considerable regional differences. For Australia, the impacts on the real economy are small. We see limited upside in the next three years. Beyond that, the drag on the global economy, and China in particular, will weigh on growth in Australia, lowering the level of GDP by around 0.1ppts in 2029 compared to our previous baseline.

• We expect Australia will be largely exempt from US tariffs, as it was during the first Trump administration. But even if tariffs are applied, the impact is likely to be small with the US only accounting for around 3.7% of Australia’s goods exports.