Forecasts and scenarios to inform the future of Australia’s energy market
The Australian Energy Market Operator required long-term macroeconomic and energy price forecasts for a number of scenarios characterised by changing economic and climate change profiles, to inform their analysis of the future shape of Australia’s energy market.
Oxford Economics Australia was commissioned to produce macroeconomic and commodity scenario projections that could be used to generate long-term gas and electricity demand and supply projections across a range of energy transition scenarios.
The solution
We worked closely with the client’s team and their stakeholders to produce long-term (30-year) macroeconomic and commodity price forecasts, across a variety of energy transition scenarios, reflecting different assumptions about the speed of transition and the development of alternative fuels, such as hydrogen. This ranged from running scenario workshops; partaking in workshop meetings with the client’s other consultants, and presenting to stakeholders to get feedback on the draft results.
We used Oxford Economics’ proprietary Global, Industry and Australia-in Detail models to develop the forecasts.
The results
The resulting reports can be found here: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/australian-macroeconomic-energy-transition-scenarios/
The final deliverables for this project included an Excel output file for economic forecasts and commodity price forecasts, with accompanying reports explaining our methodology and assumptions.
Macroeconomic forecasts were produced at a national and state level for the following indicators:
- GDP & GSP
- FX (USD/AUD)
- CPI (national only)
- Industrial GVA by ANZSIC Division
- Building commencement forecasts by dwelling type
The commodity price forecasts were produced at a global level for:
- Newcastle Thermal Coal Price (AU$/tonne)
- LNG netback price (AU$/mmbtu)
- Brent Oil Price (AU$/bbl)
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