Australia’s migration normalisation on its way

The most predictive near-term leads suggest net overseas migration (NOM) to Australia will hold near a record level for FY2024. We have conservatively revised upwards our expectation for NOM to 485,000 (+90,000).

Access the research report to learn more about the key points outlined below:

• The civilian population aged 15 years and over, estimated as part of the Labour Force Survey, provides a strong steer for population growth to June. Holding at an elevated 2.9% y/y nationally in April, it has failed to taper as previously expected, pointing firmly towards sustained, robust NOM inflows over H1 2024.
  
  
• Beyond this, signs of a slowdown are gathering. Student visas granted to offshore applicants were down 29% y/y to 68,542 in March quarter. Worker visas softened by a smaller margin but represent a weaker flow, down 4% to 14,229.
  
  
• The trajectory for departures is less obvious. Raised language standards and more stringent risk assessments such as the newly introduced Genuine Student Test (two measures flagged in the Migration Strategy) have seen student visa grants tumble, specifically for applicants rolling off another visa, and those applying to the vocational sector. The stock of bridging visa holders has consequently shot up as affected students contest decisions under the new standards.