Research Briefing | Feb 13, 2024

Australian Non-residential building major project outlook for 2024

A pipeline of major projects (contract value at or above $50 million) totalling $15.4 billion nationally is expected to break ground in calendar year 2024. This is up by 13% on 2023, with approximately half of this uplift reflective of cost inflation. Two mega projects valued over $500 million are expected for 2024: the Waterfront Brisbane development and Shellharbour Hospital in regional New South Wales.

What you will learn:

  • The value of major non-residential building project commencements captured in our project tracking for 2024 totals $15.4 billion, a level on par with the average of the past five years.

  • The progression of tier one builders onto new projects continues to be stymied by supply issues, most notably for skilled trade labour. While some chokepoints have eased, others persist, and a significant backlog of work remains in play.

  • The impact of higher borrowing costs and cost escalation are increasingly showing through. Nonetheless, capacity constraints in the broader construction sector remain the greatest near-term risk, which will likely delay some project starts into 2025.
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